The issue that could cost Trump the 2024 campaign

Joe Biden is the most unpopular president since World War II. And yet, he could win reelection. Why? Because Democrats will continue to demagogue abortion politics and, especially in certain critical swing states like Arizona, the fight over abortion could mean a win for Joe. If they want to defeat Biden, Republicans must solve this problem. 

Nikki Haley could help. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, lost the GOP primary race to former president Donald Trump but earned considerable support among women and centrist Republicans by adopting a moderate stance on abortion. She rightly says that Trump must now win over those voters; he will need the backing of his entire party to win, as well as a good percentage of Independents. Convincing Haley to become his ambassador on the issue of abortion, charged with touring the country and telling voters the truth about the Democrats’ extreme and heinous position on this issue, would help his cause. 

Democrats, though they deny it, want to allow abortion up to nine months; their position is disgusting and not popular with most Americans. That’s the law they passed in New York; that’s what they want nationwide. Haley has credibility on this issue; she could help convince voters that Democrats are the abortion extremists, not Republicans. 

Given the rancor and mud-slinging between the two, Trump will not ask Haley to be his running mate. But unless his former U.N. ambassador intends to run on a third-party ticket, which she has said she will not do, Haley will presumably want to engage in Republican politics in the future. Helping the GOP candidate win in November would go a long way towards rebuilding her battered standing in the party. 

For both Trump and Haley, a partnership would offer big dividends.

Donald Trump sees the light; he has signaled support for legalizing abortion up through 16 weeks of pregnancy, making exceptions for rape, incest or the health of the mother. This is the middle ground and is where the majority of the country falls.

The liberal media, however, will not have it. When news leaked of Trump adopting this widely-accepted position, a headline from Rolling Stone blared ‘Trump Wants to Ban Abortion Nationwide: Report’; others followed suit.

Nikky Haley declared herself throughout her campaign as ‘proudly pro-life’ but managed to craft a tolerant position on abortion that recognized the deeply personal nature of the decision some women make to end a pregnancy.

Haley commented in one GOP debate, ‘I don’t judge anyone for being pro-choice, and I don’t want them to judge me for being pro-life.’ She urged her rivals, ‘Let’s find consensus. … We don’t need to divide America over this issue anymore.’  

Haley and Trump recognize reality. They know that pro-choice advocates have won every single vote on abortion in every single state, including deep-red Kansas and that the issue drives turnout and funding for Democrats.  They fear that even as women are currently abandoning Joe Biden because they dislike his economic or immigration policies, come November those voters will choose pro-choice over pro-life.

How extreme are Democrats? In 2021, 49 Democrats in the Senate voted for H. R. 3755, the ‘Women’s Health Protection Act of 2021.’  The legislation was meant to (as the New York Times reported) ‘enshrine the landmark Roe v. Wade precedent in federal law.’ The Times failed to include a link to the actual legislation, perhaps because it is horrifying.  

The bill would have allowed abortion up through nine months of pregnancy, when, ‘in the good-faith medical judgment of the treating health care provider, continuation of the pregnancy would pose a risk to the pregnant patient’s life or health.’ 

Any health-care provider, including a ‘physician, certified nurse-midwife, nurse practitioner, [or] physician assistant’ could decide that the mother’s life was at risk, even a day before the baby was due. In other words, a woman claiming stress could convince a nurse practitioner that she needed to abort a baby at eight months. That position is abhorrent, but is actually what Democrats adopted in New York several years ago.  

Abortion will likely be on the ballot in several critical swing states, including Arizona. Pro-life activists in the state, who have launched a ‘decline to sign’ movement, probably cannot prevent pro-choice advocates from gathering the 400,000 signatures necessary to put an abortion petition up for a vote. Having abortion on the ballot will make it much, much harder for Donald Trump to win the state. 

Nevada, another toss-up state, may also include an abortion petition on their November ballot. Other states, like Maryland, could host an abortion vote which most likely would not impact the presidential race but could sideswipe the possibility of popular governor Larry Hogan picking up a senate seat for the GOP.

Anger over the dismantling of Roe v Wade cost the GOP what should have been a red wave rebuking an unpopular president in the 2022 midterm elections and has resulted in Republican losses in several special elections held since. 

Last year in Ohio, a state Donald Trump won by 8 points in 2020, voters approved by a 57% majority an amendment to the state’s constitution which would protect abortion rights. In that vote, the pro-abortion forces outraised the pro-life opponents nearly three-to-one, bringing in tens of millions of dollars from out-of-state groups. That win encouraged Democrats to ensure the issue is on the ballot in as many states as possible this fall. 

This effort should galvanize Republicans and the Trump campaign. They need to adopt a position and message to voters on abortion that will help defuse the issue. Haley could help.