CrowdStrike stock could drop to $275 amid valuation concerns, analyst warns

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD), a prominent name in the cybersecurity sector, is facing a challenging outlook according to a recent analysis by Redburn Atlantic. 

Analyst Nina Marques has issued a “sell” rating for CrowdStrike, forecasting a potential decline in its stock price to $275—a further 23% drop from its previous close. 

This comes on the heels of a 13% decline in the company’s shares over the past month, signaling growing investor concern.

Why is Redburn Atlantic bearish on CrowdStrike stock?

Nina Marques’ downgrade is rooted in valuation concerns rather than the quality of CrowdStrike’s products. 

Despite recognizing the company’s strong cybersecurity offerings, Marques points out that the current stock price does not reflect potential market slowdowns. 

Her caution is based on the belief that the market has not fully factored in a possible deceleration in growth.

Marques is particularly wary of CrowdStrike’s performance in the large enterprise sector. 

She notes that the company has struggled to establish a more substantial presence in this key market segment. 

Additionally, Marques expressed skepticism about the company’s cross-sell opportunities and cited intense competition in cloud security, identity management, and security information and event management (SIEM) as factors contributing to her bearish outlook.

Valuation and market expectations

CrowdStrike’s stock is currently trading at approximately 23 times its estimated enterprise value to sales ratio for the upcoming fiscal year. 

Marques argues that this valuation is significantly higher compared to its cybersecurity peers, who trade at about half that multiple. 

She believes the high valuation overestimates the extent to which IT budgets will expand to accommodate more advanced cybersecurity solutions.

While generative artificial intelligence (Gen-AI) is anticipated to boost demand in the short term, Marques suggests that the market may have overestimated its long-term impact. 

She expects Gen-AI to provide only a temporary uplift in demand rather than a sustained growth trend.

CrowdStrike’s shares are currently trading at around eight times their price at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting the substantial gains they have achieved over the past few years. 

However, Marques’ analysis suggests that these gains may be unsustainable given the current market conditions and competitive pressures.

Recent developments and guidance

In June, CrowdStrike reported first-quarter financial results that surpassed Street expectations. However, despite these positive results, the company’s stock price declined due to cautious guidance for the future. 

CEO George Kurtz highlighted the strengths of CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform, emphasizing its unique architecture and competitive advantages in addressing major cybersecurity and IT challenges.

For fiscal Q2, CrowdStrike has projected revenue between $958 million and $961 million, with earnings up to 99 cents per share. 

Despite these optimistic projections, the muted guidance has contributed to investor unease.

Earlier this week, CrowdStrike announced the launch of Falcon Complete Next-Gen MDR, aiming to enhance its cybersecurity offerings. 

However, even with these new developments, the prevailing sentiment among analysts remains cautious.

As CrowdStrike navigates these turbulent waters, investors should carefully consider these factors and the potential risks before making investment decisions.

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