China data center capacity to double by 2030 driven by AI, HPC: Rystad

China is set to significantly expand its digital infrastructure, with new analysis from Rystad Energy projecting the country will nearly double its data center capacity over the next five years. 

An anticipated 28 gigawatts (GW) of new projects are expected to come online by 2030, building on the 32 GW already installed by the end of last year.

The anticipated expansion, based on current project announcements (with more capacity likely), is projected to elevate data center power usage to 289 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, according to the analysis. 

AI and HPC drive unprecedented capacity surge

Data centers in China are projected to consume more than twice the electricity levels seen last year, making up approximately 2.3% of the country’s total electricity demand. 

This sector is also expected to become China’s fastest-growing source of power consumption, with demand increasing by an annual rate of 19% between 2025 and 2030, a surge primarily fueled by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC).

Installed capacity is set to reach 40 GW this year, up from 32 GW at the end of 2025, driven by rapid buildout.

AI and HPC facilities, which are more energy-intensive than traditional data centers, are increasingly dominant, accounting for 39% of capacity this year and projected to rise to 48% by 2030, according to Rystad. 

This shift, reinforced by the 2022 ‘East Data West Computing’ strategy, is reshaping China’s digital infrastructure scale and geography, establishing eight major computing hubs. 

Clusters like Ulanqab in Inner Mongolia have secured around 10 GW of projects from companies including 21Vianet, Huawei, and ByteDance, easing pressure on the east’s land and energy resources.

“Operators are not waiting for policy incentives or mandates to integrate renewables,” Simeng Deng, senior analyst at Rystad Energy, said in the analysis.

Data center growth defies power demand slowdown

China’s power demand growth is expected to slow down, according to Rystad Energy. 

The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is projected to be 3.9% through 2030, a decrease from the 6.5% seen during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a period when consumption surpassed 10,000 TWh last year.

This deceleration is attributed to improvements in efficiency and a shift in the demand mix.

However, within this overall slowdown, there are sharp sectoral differences.

Specifically, industrial demand growth is forecast to significantly decelerate, dropping from a 5.4% CAGR between 2021 and 2025 to just 3% between this year and 2030, Rystad said.

Conversely, despite accounting for only 1.2% of total power demand last year, data centers have shown significant growth, with a 38% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the last five years, the Norway-based energy intelligence agency said. 

This trend is expected to continue, with a projected 19% CAGR through 2030, which would increase their share of national power consumption to 2.3% by the end of the decade.

Key procurement model

China’s data center operations primarily rely on the country’s reliable, coal-baseloaded grid power. 

However, the massive data center expansion is now driving renewable energy use.

New projects in the eight national computing hubs must source at least 80% of power from renewables by 2025, leading operators to adopt diverse renewable power procurement strategies.

“The integration of wind, solar and battery energy storage is emerging as a key model for the sector’s next phase besides grid connection,” Rystad Energy said. 

This approach is demonstrated by several projects, such as Zhongjin’s Ulanqab computing base.

This base is notable as one of China’s first zero-carbon computing projects, supplied by 200 MW of wind power, 100 MW of solar power, and 45 MW/180 megawatt-hours (MWh) of battery storage.

The data center sector in China is transforming into a core structural driver of power demand, moving beyond its former peripheral role in the nation’s power system. 

The post China data center capacity to double by 2030 driven by AI, HPC: Rystad appeared first on Invezz