US emissions reductions off track for 2030 targets under Paris accord

Despite substantial progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the United States remains off track to meet its 2030 targets set under the Paris Agreement.

The Biden administration’s extensive green subsidies and new climate regulations have significantly lowered emissions, yet they fall short of the ambitious goal to cut emissions by at least 50 percent from 2005 levels by the end of the decade.

Progress made but targets still unmet

According to independent research from the Rhodium Group, the US is likely to achieve emissions reductions of between 32 percent and 43 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.

The analysis further projects an acceleration in reductions, reaching between 38 percent and 55 percent by 2035. While these figures represent significant progress, they highlight the challenge of meeting the 50 percent reduction pledge by 2030.

The Biden administration has implemented a range of legislative and regulatory measures aimed at cutting emissions.

Notable among these is the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes $369 billion in clean energy subsidies.

Additionally, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has introduced regulations to curtail emissions from power plants and vehicles.

However, despite these efforts, the Rhodium Group’s analysis suggests that more is needed to align with the Paris Agreement’s objectives.

Biden’s record investment in clean energy

The first quarter of 2024 saw a record $71 billion in clean energy investment in the US, marking a 40 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023.

This surge in investment underscores a significant shift towards renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, which are critical to reducing emissions from the power sector. Ben

King, associate director of Rhodium’s energy and climate practice, acknowledged the progress but emphasized that it is insufficient for meeting the 2030 target.

It doesn’t get us to 50 percent in 2030, it’s not putting us on a long-term trajectory to decarbonisation.

Sector-specific reductions and challenges

The Rhodium Group’s forecast includes optimistic projections for emissions reductions across several sectors.

By 2035, emissions from the power sector could fall by up to 83 percent below 2023 levels, driven by the expansion of wind and solar energy and the decline in coal usage.

Similarly, new EPA regulations targeting transport emissions could lead to a reduction of up to 34 percent below 2023 levels by 2035.

Methane emissions from oil and gas operations are expected to drop by up to 28 percent over the same period, thanks to stringent EPA regulations.

However, these projections come with caveats. Rising electricity demand from data centers and potential legal challenges to climate regulations from the US Supreme Court could alter the anticipated course of emissions reductions.

In June, the Supreme Court limited the authority of federal agencies by overturning a longstanding legal doctrine that allowed US agencies to create rules and regulations based on their interpretation of the law.

This decision could impede future regulatory efforts aimed at reducing emissions.

What happens if Trump wins?

The upcoming presidential election adds another layer of uncertainty to the US’ climate ambitions.

If former President Donald Trump wins the election, he is expected to withdraw from the Paris Agreement once again and reverse many of the Biden administration’s climate policies.

This potential policy shift could significantly impact the US’ progress towards its emissions reduction targets.

The need for continued action

The US has made considerable strides in reducing emissions, but the path to achieving the Paris Agreement targets remains fraught with challenges.

The Rhodium Group’s analysis highlights the importance of sustained and enhanced efforts to cut emissions. Policymakers, businesses, and consumers will all need to contribute to a comprehensive strategy aimed at long-term decarbonization.

Researchers predict that sharp declines in emissions will continue between 2023 and 2035, particularly from the power sector.

However, realizing these reductions will require overcoming significant obstacles, including regulatory challenges and increasing energy demands.

The Biden administration’s initiatives have laid a solid foundation, but additional measures will be necessary to ensure that the US meets its climate commitments.

The United States has made notable progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, thanks to substantial investments in clean energy and rigorous regulatory measures.

However, the latest analysis from the Rhodium Group indicates that these efforts are not enough to meet the ambitious targets set under the Paris Agreement by 2030.

The findings underscore the need for continued and enhanced action to address the climate crisis effectively. As the political landscape evolves and new challenges emerge, maintaining momentum towards decarbonization will be crucial for the US to fulfill its climate commitments.

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